Business travel buyers can look forward to a more stable pricing environment over the next 18 months, according to the latest Global Business Travel Forecast published by CWT and the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA). Released during the GBTA’s annual convention in Denver, the influential outlook suggests the steep spikes and volatility experienced in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic are finally ebbing, making room for moderate, predictable changes across airfares, hotel rates, and ground transportation costs through 2025 and 2026.

Return to Predictability: What the Data Shows

Drawing on advanced economic and statistical modeling by the Avrio Institute and leveraging anonymized data from CWT, GBTA, and public sources, the report projects:

• Global airfares are expected to dip by 2.2% in 2025 to an average of $705 before experiencing a modest uptick of 0.4% in 2026 to $708. In Europe, a 0.6% increase in 2025 will be followed by a 2.1% rise in 2026.
• Hotel rates worldwide are set to rise by 1.2% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, reaching an average of $166 per night. In Europe, average daily rates are projected to grow by 1.9% annually across both years.
• Car rental costs—one of the most volatile categories over recent years—will see rates increase by 2.9% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026 globally, reaching an average of $48 per day. European rental rates are forecast to grow at a slower pace (1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026), both far below 2024’s 6.7% surge after post-pandemic supply shortages.
• Meetings & events spending is forecast to grow more steadily, with the average per-day, per-attendee cost up 3.7% in 2025 ($168) and a further 2.4% in 2026 ($172). This represents a softening after a 4.5% rise in 2024, reflecting improved supply and stabilized demand.

“Airline capacity, room supply, and car rental fleets are gradually catching up with demand—even as inflationary pressures, lingering economic concerns, and policy shifts remain key watchpoints,” CWT and GBTA commented in their joint release.

A Shift in Power: Travel Buyers Gain Leverage

After years of rapid price changes and uncertainty, travel managers say market conditions now allow for more strategic spending and improved negotiation. CWT CEO Patrick Andersen noted, “While economic uncertainty hasn’t gone away, corporate travel buyers are regaining leverage and have more room to optimize their programmes.” He emphasized that organizations with robust data and a clear procurement plan can now benefit from localized pricing, smarter contract negotiations, and maximizing gains from evolving event formats.

GBTA CEO Suzanne Neufang echoed these sentiments, adding, “Current indicators point to a more predictable era ahead for business travel pricing. However, that landscape will continue to be shaped by inflation, supply constraints, and evolving traveler expectations. The good news is that with better data and clearer trends, buyers can plan with more confidence.”

Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors Remain Risks

Despite the positive outlook, the forecast cautions about possible interruptions: inflation remains persistent in several economies, and geopolitical events—such as ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and uncertainty surrounding major elections in the United States and Europe—could impact pricing trajectories and supply chains. In response, CWT and GBTA also prepared a recessionary scenario, indicating that a global economic downturn would likely trigger price reductions across all travel categories for both 2025 and 2026.

Recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank updates also highlight ongoing global economic fragility. The World Bank’s 2025 global growth forecast now hovers around 2.7%, while persistent inflation in certain regions continues to constrain consumer and business spending.

Business Travel Spending to Exceed $1.57 Trillion

Alongside the forecast, GBTA’s Business Travel Index Outlook projects that global business travel spending will hit $1.57 trillion in 2025 and $1.69 trillion in 2026. However, this represents a cautious downgrade from previous estimates amid geopolitical tension and intermediate economic signals.

Even so, the anticipated scale of post-pandemic recovery is significant: pre-pandemic business travel spending in 2019 stood at $1.43 trillion, marking a near-complete rebound for the industry by 2026 according to current projections.

Strategic Recommendations for Buyers

Experts recommend that travel buyers stay agile, continuously seek new value from suppliers, and monitor regional pricing trends closely. With more reliable forecasts and historic volatility subsiding, procurement teams should focus on:

• Consolidating preferred supplier relationships to maximize negotiated discounts and added-value services.
• Leveraging data and analytics to spot savings on routes, hotels, and ground transport.
• Planning meetings and events with cost containment and attendee impact in mind, adapting formats where appropriate.
• Preparing contingency plans for supply chain shocks or sudden market changes—especially in response to economic or geopolitical disruptions.

Greater price stability will offer buyers more room to align travel spending with broader business objectives, promoting both return-on-investment and sustainable travel practices as ESG and carbon reporting become ever more critical to corporate agendas.

Conclusion: A More Predictable Era for Corporate Travel

The CWT and GBTA joint forecast signals a welcome shift for an industry long battered by unpredictability. As pricing across business travel segments returns to more measured growth—alongside robust global spending forecasts—corporate travel managers, suppliers, and travelers alike can plan ahead with greater certainty and flexibility. However, ongoing vigilance is needed as economic and geopolitical headwinds can still lead to sudden deviations from these optimistic projections.

For now, the message is clear: the worst of post-pandemic volatility is past, and a new era of stability, strategy, and incremental growth is within reach for global business travel.