The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has revised its 2025 global business travel spending forecast, signaling growing concern over sustained economic headwinds, geopolitical uncertainty and shifting corporate priorities. The association now projects worldwide corporate travel outlays will reach $1.565 trillion in 2025—a 6.6% year-over-year increase, but still well below the $1.638 trillion GBTA forecasted just one year ago. This cautious outlook, detailed in GBTA’s annual Business Travel Index Outlook released at its 2025 convention in Denver, reflects both resilience in the sector and acknowledgement of persistent risks that could undermine recovery and growth.

Slower Growth and Lingering Gaps from Pre-Pandemic Highs

While business travel spending rebounded strongly following the pandemic, the 2024 total—now finalized at $1.468 trillion—was slightly below 2024’s earlier forecast of $1.484 trillion. In nominal terms, 2024 marked an all-time high for global business travel spend, but after adjusting for inflation the figure remains approximately 14% below 2019’s pre-pandemic peak. This suggests that the industry continues to face challenges in fully regaining its pre-COVID momentum despite robust recovery efforts globally.

GBTA CEO Suzanne Neufang commented on the outlook, stating, “Trade policy uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and shifting global supply chains are reshaping how and where companies travel. This latest forecast reflects the resiliency of business travel and our industry as well as the acknowledgment of the risks ahead.” She emphasized the complexity of the road ahead and the need for companies and travel suppliers to adapt as conditions change.

Prolonged Headwinds: Trade Tensions and Government Policy Impacts

The GBTA report attributes the softened growth outlook to “growing headwinds from global trade tensions and economic uncertainty.” The ongoing realignment of global supply chains, amplified by policy measures such as tariffs and increased scrutiny of international travelers, is affecting how corporations plan business trips, events, and meetings—especially with the 2024 U.S. presidential election looming and generating policy unpredictability.

The association projects that, while global business travel spending will continue to grow through 2029, annual growth rates are expected to trail prior forecasts, with each year’s projected total through 2028 now lower than previously estimated. Still, GBTA projects consistent increases of at least 5.4% year-over-year through the next five years, subject to the resolution—or escalation—of major geopolitical and economic risks.

Corporate Travel Buyers Adjust Strategies Amid Uncertainty

Findings from GBTA’s recent sentiment survey, canvassing 950 global business travel professionals (roughly half of whom are travel buyers), indicate further softness in demand and activity. Thirty-four percent of buyers now expect the volume of employee business trips to decline in 2025 versus 2024 due to government policies and economic uncertainty—a pessimistic cohort up five percentage points since April. Particularly, international travel plans are bearing the brunt, with businesses more than twice as likely to cut global trips compared to domestic ones.

Spending projections echo these volume declines. One-third of travel buyers anticipate their budgets will shrink by an average of 17%, while only one in ten expects any increase at all—and, even then, only by a modest 10%. Corporate meetings and events are facing widespread cancellations and relocations: 18% of global buyers have scrapped meetings, 17% deleted U.S.-planned events, and 13% shifted meetings to entirely new regions. Nearly a quarter of surveyed companies reported shifting some planned in-person meetings online, reflecting a broader trend toward hybrid and digital engagement.

The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade and immigration policy has been particularly disruptive for Canadian companies; more than half of Canadian respondents confirmed travel volumes and spend had declined, and that corporate meetings originally scheduled for the U.S. had been cancelled or relocated. Additionally, 20% of travel buyers said they had cancelled participation in U.S.-based events entirely, often citing risk mitigation and organizational prudence.

Supplier Sentiment Sours, Especially Among Hoteliers

The dampened outlook among corporate buyers is directly impacting suppliers’ confidence. According to the survey, 48% of suppliers believe business travel revenue will decrease in 2025 compared to 2024, with pessimism particularly acute among hoteliers—58% of whom projected falling business travel revenues for 2025. The sentiment underscores the complex dynamics at play, with both demand and supply sides bracing for continued volatility in key markets such as North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific.

Economic Case for Business Travel Investment Remains Compelling

While weaker business travel activity signals immediate challenges for the travel sector, the broader risk is that companies underinvesting in business travel risk missing significant revenue opportunities. A separate GBTA report, “T&E and the Bottom-Line: Quantifying the Return on Investment of U.S. Business Travel,” produced with support from the American Society of Travel Advisors and Rockport Analytics, finds a strong correlation between travel spending and corporate profitability.

Key highlights from the study include:

• Every $1 invested in U.S. business travel yields $14.60 in net operating income—up to a certain threshold, after which ROI plateaus.
• Current U.S. travel and expense (T&E) spending sits at $294 billion; however, GBTA estimates $319.1 billion in annual T&E spend would be required to truly maximize U.S. industry profitability. This 8.3% gap equates to $24 million in additional investment needed to unlock an estimated $2.4 trillion in sales industrywide.
• For the average company, this additional investment represents just $184 per employee, suggesting an attainable path for organizations seeking transformation through in-person client and team engagement.

Parallel findings from the UK indicate that a strategic 9.7% increase in T&E spend could drive an 8.1% surge in sales, which for UK-based corporates represents over £319 billion in new revenue—and just £94 in added business travel investment per employee. These analyses reinforce the vital role of in-person meetings and relationship building in achieving lasting business outcomes, even as virtual solutions remain prevalent.

Looking Ahead: Managing Risk and Capturing Opportunity

The travel industry’s recent record of resilience is matched by new challenges that demand adaptive strategies from both buyers and suppliers. The continued uncertainty—driven by trade policy shifts, inflationary threats, and ongoing disruption from global events—demands more agile and data-driven decision making by travel managers, procurement teams, and C-suite executives alike.

As organizations plan for the remainder of the decade, the data suggests cautious optimism: while the rate of recovery may be slower than hoped, consistent year-on-year growth in global business travel spend remains likely. Companies that strategically reinvest in business travel, guided by clear data on ROI, will be best positioned to convert opportunities, build relationships, and achieve outsized returns, while those that withdraw risk falling behind. For suppliers, deep focus on evolving buyer preferences and innovative value creation will be essential for navigating near-term headwinds and securing long-term growth.

Read the full GBTA report to access detailed forecast data and actionable insights for your organization.