Uncertainty Clouds 2025’s Business Travel Outlook

The global business travel industry, which has spent much of the past three years in recovery mode, is once again navigating treacherous waters in 2025. New data from the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) signals a sharp cooling in corporate travel sentiment. According to the GBTA’s July 2025 survey—which gathered responses from 950 corporate travel managers, suppliers, travel management companies, and other industry stakeholders across 45 countries—only 28% expressed optimism about the business travel sector, plummeting from 67% as recently as late 2024.

Key factors driving the deceleration include persistent economic uncertainty, ongoing tariff disputes, and the resurgence of geopolitical tensions. These have compelled many companies to adopt a cautious, “wait-and-see” approach for transient travel and large-scale meetings alike.

Industry Segments Feel the Pinch

The GBTA’s outlook poll underscores the gloom particularly among travel suppliers. While 37% of suppliers anticipated year-over-year revenue drops in April 2025, that figure leaped to 48% by June. Hotel suppliers were especially pessimistic, with 58% bracing for an average revenue decline of 17%. This aligns with lodging industry analytics from STR and CoStar Group, whose senior vice president Jan Freitag noted that weekday U.S. hotel occupancy decreased for four consecutive months—March through June—compared to 2024 levels.

“Weekday occupancy softness is a clear warning sign for the business segment,” Freitag stated, highlighting weakening demand among corporate travelers that directly impacts American hotels’ bottom line.

Group occupancy, typically a dependable revenue stream for hotels, also fell in the first half of 2025. This is a significant concern, as group meetings, conventions, and trade shows are crucial drivers for urban hotel markets.

Business Travel Spending: Growth Slows, Not Stops

Despite these warning signs, the GBTA’s Business Travel Index still projects global business travel spending will rise by 7% to reach $1.57 trillion in 2025. However, this marks a notable slowdown from the stronger post-pandemic rebounds seen in 2023 and 2024. Much of the 2025 growth is focused in Asia-Pacific and certain emerging markets, while North America and Europe see slower recoveries amid persistent inflation and labor market volatility.

Some leading travel management companies (TMCs) echo the sluggishness. At the 2025 GBTA annual convention in Denver, Altour President Gabe Rizzi explained, “Business is essentially flat year over year, which is well short of our double-digit growth targets.” He reported that business from government contractors and major manufacturers is down by double digits, with the government IT sector off approximately 25% compared to last year. In response, TMCs like Altour are turning toward client acquisition and strategic partnerships to sustain revenue.

Travel and Entertainment Budgets Under Pressure

American Express, a bellwether for business travel spending, reported that travel and entertainment spending among commercial customers grew just 1% year-over-year in Q2 2025, down from 2% growth in Q1. The company attributed this deceleration to “softer airline and lodging spend,” a trend seen across multiple expense management platforms. According to GBTA’s survey, only 39% of airline suppliers expect revenue declines this year, faring better than hotels but still under pressure.

Airlines themselves report a mixed picture: Delta Airlines posted modest single-digit year-over-year growth in corporate sales in June, while United Airlines saw slightly stronger results. United CEO Scott Kirby remarked that though business demand has not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels, “demand has certainly inflected in a positive direction.” Yet this optimism—and demand—remains uneven, especially for industry sectors directly impacted by tariffs, such as automotive manufacturing.

Tariffs and Geopolitics Weigh Heavily

Industry leaders point to unpredictability in global trade policy as a key reason for the mood shift. “The on-again, off-again tariff environment has infused uncertainty into the macroeconomic outlook,” Jan Freitag observed. The ever-shifting trade landscape is prompting companies to delay or downsize travel plans, particularly for sectors highly exposed to global supply chains.

Suzanne Neufang, CEO of GBTA, highlighted that “manufacturing is the most at risk due to current disruptions, but the situation is highly fluid and could evolve rapidly.” This uncertainty about future policy moves is hampering strategic travel planning across industries.

Visa Policy and U.S. Meetings: New Barriers Emerge

Beyond economic and trade factors, shifting U.S. government policy and visa processing delays are emerging as major headwinds—especially for international meetings hosted in the United States. According to GBTA’s latest poll, 20% of surveyed organizations have canceled U.S.-based meetings since April 2025, double the 10% that reported similar changes earlier this spring. More organizations have also shifted meetings outside the U.S. or migrated events to virtual formats.

“It’s not just non-U.S. companies making these changes—U.S.-based companies are also relocating meetings abroad or going virtual due to troubles getting timely visas for key employees,” Neufang noted. One in five of GBTA’s global travel buyers say employees have declined U.S.-based business trips over government-related travel barriers.

This concern is mounting: Over a third of respondents personally know someone whose travel has been directly affected by U.S. policy changes, up from 23% in April. The result is a growing reluctance to commit to meetings or travel involving the United States, compounding the softening already caused by economic factors.

2025 and Beyond: Business Travel in Flux

While the sector is not in outright crisis, the current pattern reflects a more cautious, cost-sensitive, and fragmented business travel ecosystem. A moderating demand landscape is forcing suppliers, TMCs, and corporate buyers alike to implement creative strategies—ranging from building new tech partnerships to exploring alternative meeting locations—to navigate ongoing volatility.

According to industry forecasts, the second half of 2025 is likely to remain choppy, but opportunities still exist in regions less affected by policy and trade disruptions. Innovative solutions in digital travel management, flexible policies, and robust risk management will be crucial for companies and suppliers seeking to adapt.

As global trade policies, visa processes, and economic factors evolve in the coming quarters, the business travel industry’s ability to pivot quickly—and support its travelers through uncertainty—will determine how fast true recovery resumes.