Shoulder Season Gains Ground as Off-Peak Travel Surges

As the global travel industry continues to rebound and evolve following the disruptions of the early 2020s, fresh data reveals a marked shift in traveler behavior. According to a recent survey conducted by Travelsavers and the Network of Entrepreneurs Selling Travel (NEST), more travelers are opting to book during the shoulder season — those periods between peak and off-peak tourist seasons. This trend is driven by desires to avoid heavy crowds, extreme weather, and soaring peak-season prices, and is reshaping the strategies of travel advisors and the wider tourism sector.

The survey, distributed among Travelsavers and NEST agencies in April and May 2025, found that 32% of respondents reported an increase in shoulder season bookings compared to the same time last year. Among these, 12% observed a rise of 10% or more, and 20% saw increases between 1% and 9%. Another 35% indicated that shoulder season travel levels remained similar year-over-year, while 27% noted a decline. These figures underscore a robust and continuing interest in off-peak travel periods.

Why Travelers Are Shifting to the Shoulder Season

The motivations behind this growing trend are multifaceted. Crowd avoidance ranks high, with popular destinations such as Rome, Paris, and Barcelona experiencing historic levels of overtourism during peak months. In 2023 and 2024, several European cities implemented crowd management measures and increased travel fees to combat congestion. As a result, discerning travelers are turning toward shoulder season windows — typically the spring and fall — when attractions are quieter and experiences more authentic.

Affordability is another major factor. Airfares and hotel rates tend to be lower in shoulder periods, allowing travelers to stretch their budgets further or opt for upgraded accommodations and experiences. According to Statista, average round-trip airfare for European destinations dropped by as much as 20% during shoulder season compared to the peak summer holiday.

Additionally, extreme weather driven by climate change — including record-setting heatwaves in 2023 and 2024 — has made travel in the height of summer less appealing. Destinations that have become uncomfortably hot or subject to wildfires during July and August now see increased interest in the milder months just before or after the traditional high season.

Last-Minute Bookings on the Rise

The Travelsavers and NEST research also highlights another emerging pattern: a surge in last-minute bookings. The survey found that 20% of respondents experienced a higher-than-usual volume of bookings made shortly before departure. This trend dovetails with broader post-pandemic consumer behaviors — including a desire for flexibility, wariness around rapidly changing travel restrictions, and the appeal of last-minute deals.

Recent data from Skift and Travelport confirms that travel booking windows are shortening across the globe. In early 2025, the average lead time for international travel bookings fell to just 23 days, compared with pre-pandemic averages of up to 45 days. For domestic travel, many U.S. agencies report that half of their clients now book within two weeks of their trip.

Technology is further fueling this behavior. With robust mobile apps and AI-driven search and recommendation engines, travelers can research and secure trips in a matter of minutes, often capitalizing on spontaneous deals or responding to dynamic pricing fluctuations.

The Changing Role of Travel Advisors

This shift toward off-peak and last-minute travel is redefining the role of travel advisors. As booking patterns evolve, advisors are leveraging their expertise to help clients find value, avoid inconvenience, and maximize their experiences. Many agencies now proactively promote shoulder season destinations, highlight weather advantages, and secure flexible booking options to appeal to apprehensive or opportunistic clients.

Industry association ASTA (American Society of Travel Advisors) and leading consortia are encouraging members to develop marketing campaigns specifically around shoulder season and time-sensitive offers. Smaller agencies are also using data-driven insights to surface best times to visit popular locales, while larger players negotiate exclusive shoulder season rates with hotels and tour providers to remain competitive.

“Clients are increasingly seeking our guidance to avoid the crowds while enjoying a destination at its best,” says a senior advisor at a New York-based agency. “Shoulder season and last-minute deals give our travelers more options and a sense of adventure, often with added savings.”

Implications for Destinations and the Industry

The rise in off-peak travel offers clear benefits for both destinations and travelers. Spreading demand more evenly throughout the year helps reduce pressure on local infrastructure, preserves cultural sites, and delivers sustainable revenue streams for hotels, restaurants, and tour operators. Meanwhile, travelers enjoy a less stressful and more meaningful experience.

Destinations from Greece to Japan have ramped up marketing for shoulder seasons, promoting local festivals, culinary experiences, and unique activities available outside the traditional peak months. National tourism agencies are also collaborating with airlines to launch seasonal promotions and improve direct flight access in their shoulder months.

According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), fostering year-round tourism growth is among the industry’s top sustainability targets for 2025 and beyond.

The Outlook for 2025 and Beyond

As we move into the latter half of 2025, early survey results from Travel Weekly’s own research indicate even shorter booking windows and continued shifts in traveler preferences. While uncertainties such as evolving international restrictions and environmental disruptions remain, advisors anticipate that flexibility and value will keep shoulder season and spontaneous travel at the forefront of travel trends for the foreseeable future.

For travel agents and travelers alike, being attuned to these trends can mean the difference between a crowded, costly trip — and the discovery of something unexpected. With travel continuing to evolve, 2025 is shaping up to be the year that shoulder season and spontaneous journeys become the norm, not the exception.