Overview: Transformation, Technology, and Turbulence

As summer 2025 unfolds, the business travel supply chain is in flux, with distribution models, supplier relationships, and technology adoption facing unprecedented scrutiny and innovation. Industry experts and insiders, sharing insights across social channels, highlight a period defined by strategic uncertainty, particularly surrounding travel management company (TMC) consolidation, rising AI adoption, and the need for technology that fits all market segments—not just the largest players.

The TMC Market: Mergers Spark Buyer Uncertainty

The pending merger between two industry heavyweights, American Express Global Business Travel and CWT, remains under review by the U.S. Department of Justice, prolonging uncertainty for corporate travel buyers. Caroline Strachan, CEO of Festive Road, predicts a significant surge in TMC request-for-proposals (RFPs) as soon as clarity emerges, warning that buyers without established relationships could face the prospect of no-bid responses as demand outstrips supply.

“Many companies are holding off on making decisions until the merger dust settles, extending current contracts as a precaution,” says Strachan. “However, if too many follow suit, a rush could overwhelm sales teams, creating a seller’s market.” This could lead to missed opportunities for companies slow to engage proactively with potential TMC partners.

John Stephenson, managing director at Your Travel Corporate, notes that smaller corporate clients are already reevaluating their strategies and options, recognizing that the ripple effects of industry consolidation do not spare niche players. Simultaneously, Ewan Kassir of Clarity Business Travel observes that proactive buyers are already initiating new relationships and exploring travel and meetings solutions that the soon-to-be consolidated giants might not offer.

“At industry events like the Business Travel Show in June 2025, buyers emphasized flexibility, agility, and the importance of building partnerships early,” Kassir reports. “Increasingly, TMCs require a strong relationship before committing to bid, making early engagement an essential component of a successful travel program.”

Industry Context: According to data from the Global Business Travel Association, global business travel spending is forecast to exceed $1.5 trillion in 2025, with North America and Europe seeing robust recovery post-pandemic. However, the supplier landscape is consolidating: the proposed GBT/CWT merger alone would create a mega-TMC with more than a third of global managed travel market share, intensifying competition and changing the dynamics for buyers and suppliers alike.

Airline Retailing: Beyond the Amazon Analogy

The drive to modernize airline retailing often draws parallels to Amazon’s personalized and dynamic digital commerce model. However, Roland Heller, an advisor to IATA’s NDC (New Distribution Capability) initiative, argues that this analogy fails many carriers—especially small and midsize airlines—by pushing enterprise-grade, one-size-fits-all solutions onto segments with vastly different needs.

“Most innovation in airline retailing targets the largest carriers, creating a tech and relevance gap that leaves 95% of the industry struggling with costly, inflexible, and overly complex tools,” Heller writes. “Instead of asking how small airlines can mimic Amazon, we should focus on how they can innovate with solutions designed for their realities.”

Jim Hetzel, VP at TWAI, echoes this sentiment, emphasizing that despite the promise of standards like NDC and IATA’s One Order, true retail transformation depends on aligning technology adoption with each airline’s commercial goals and operational capabilities.

Industry voices such as Edson Bezerra at Ink Innovation call for modular, intuitive technology that enables smaller, leaner teams to run modern retail operations efficiently and cost-effectively. “Many vendors still design primarily for the top 5% of the market while neglecting the unique needs of the majority. The future lies in flexible, right-sized approaches,” Bezerra asserts.

Industry Context: In 2024 and early 2025, IATA reported record adoption of NDC, but only a quarter of global airline tickets are now distributed through these new channels. The majority of independent airlines lag behind due to the investment and operational hurdles involved in implementing next-generation retail systems.

AI in Airline Distribution: Evolution or Revolution?

The application of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly generative AI, is generating intense debate in the airline distribution space. Oliver Ammann, VP Commercial at OpenJaw Technologies, believes that AI will become integral to every layer of the distribution ecosystem—streamlining processes, enabling dynamic pricing, personalizing offers, and powering new customer service experiences.

“But while AI is set to transform business processes and rewrite the rules of engagement around distribution, it is unlikely to cause sudden disintermediation or dismantle the established ecosystem,” Ammann clarifies. “Expect to see more airlines building proprietary generative AI platforms that interface seamlessly with external distribution partners, rather than betting exclusively on third-party integration.”

Adding nuance, Cory Garner, CEO of Garner, highlights the “second order impacts” that could emerge as agentic AI—a technology where AI makes autonomous buying decisions—matures. “Airline distribution has traditionally relied on human-driven workflows, using APIs built to manage and constrain manual processes. We’ll need new, agentic AI-powered systems on both the supply and demand sides to unlock the true potential of AI-enabled shopping,” he suggests.

Industry Context: According to McKinsey, implementation of AI across the travel sector could generate over $400 billion in productivity gains globally by 2030. Airline leaders including Delta, Lufthansa, and Emirates have announced multimillion-dollar investments in machine learning, natural language processing, and personalized customer platforms. Simultaneously, ethical and regulatory questions linger: European Union AI Act and U.S. Federal Trade Commission guidelines are likely to shape how AI is implemented in airline and agency operations throughout the rest of the decade.

What This Means for Buyers and Suppliers

• Proactive Engagement: Buyers must start engaging with current and prospective TMCs and suppliers now to avoid capacity crunches and secure tailored, responsive support.
• Fit-for-Purpose Technology: Embracing modular, right-sized tools—especially for mid-sized and smaller players—is key to futureproofing both airline and TMC operations.
• AI Integration: Understanding and carefully navigating the evolving world of generative and agentic AI will separate leaders from laggards in delivering customer value and operational efficiency.
• Market Awareness: Vigilant monitoring of mergers, antitrust reviews, and regulatory developments will be essential as industry dynamics shift and new players emerge, both in technology and management services.

As one expert summarized, “In a world where competition is fierce and technology changes the rules overnight, early movers and adaptable organizations will secure the greatest advantage.”

Looking Ahead

With transformative changes on the horizon, July 2025 stands as a pivotal moment for business travel distribution. As corporate travel resumes pre-pandemic trajectories, buyers and suppliers alike face pressing decisions on technology adoption, partnership strategy, and AI-driven innovation. The winners will be those willing to question assumptions, build relationships early, and embrace technology that fits—not forces—the future of managed travel.