As the holiday season approaches, travelers are bracing for what could be one of the most competitive and expensive periods for air travel in recent memory. With post-pandemic demand showing no sign of slowing and airlines grappling with staffing shortages and capacity constraints, knowing when to book flights is more critical than ever.

Why Holiday Airfare Is Rising

The surge in airfare prices can be traced to several converging factors. According to data from Hopper and the Airlines Reporting Corporation (ARC), airfare for peak holiday travel dates has increased by an average of 12–17% year-over-year since 2022. Key contributors include:

• Increased demand: After years of pandemic-era restrictions, Americans are traveling in record numbers. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screened more than 2.9 million passengers in a single day on the 2024 Labor Day weekend—a new post-2019 record.
• Limited airline capacity: Airlines continue to operate with fewer flights than in pre-pandemic years due to pilot shortages, aircraft delivery delays, and the ongoing effects of supply chain issues. This has led to higher load factors on existing flights.
• Rising operational costs: Jet fuel prices and increased labor expenses have forced carriers to pass costs onto consumers through higher ticket prices.

Expert Booking Advice for 2025 Holidays

Clint Henderson, Managing Editor at The Points Guy, emphasizes the importance of booking early for the 2025 holiday period, especially for Thanksgiving, Christmas, Hanukkah, and New Year’s. “Our data shows that airfare for major holidays begins to climb as much as eight weeks prior—and can jump by up to 40% in the last month before the flight,” Henderson says.

His key recommendations:

• Book holiday flights by early September: This is often when airlines release discounted fare buckets and before price hikes kick in.
• Avoid booking within 30 days of departure: Prices tend to increase sharply after the 30-day mark, with the highest fares seen in the final two weeks before major holidays.
• Be flexible with travel dates: Leaving a day or two before or after peak travel dates can result in significant savings. For Thanksgiving 2025, traveling on Monday or Tuesday before the holiday, or the Friday/Saturday after, is typically cheaper than peak days.
• Set fare alerts and use points: Technology tools like Google Flights and Hopper can help track price changes. Savvy travelers may also leverage frequent flyer miles or credit card points to offset costs.

2025 Holiday Travel Trends

According to a recent report from the U.S. Travel Association, 2025 is shaping up to be a record-setting year for holiday travel, with an estimated 63 million Americans planning to fly between Thanksgiving and New Year’s Day. Airports in major metropolitan hubs—such as Atlanta (ATL), Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW), Denver (DEN), Chicago O’Hare (ORD), and Los Angeles (LAX)—are expecting capacity at, or above, pre-pandemic levels.

This increased demand has already led many airlines, including Delta, United, and American, to adjust schedules and add extra flights on some routes, but capacity still falls short of demand. As a result, last-minute shoppers will be left with limited options and high prices.

Strategies to Save Even if Prices Are High

• Check nearby airports: Expanding your search to include smaller or alternative airports can yield cheaper fares.
• Book connecting or off-peak flights: Nonstop flights are in highest demand. Consider one-stop itineraries or late-night/early-morning departures for savings.
• Monitor discounts and flash sales: Subscribe to airline email alerts and follow social media channels for unadvertised deals.
• Avoid checked bag fees: Flying with carry-on luggage only can save $30–$70 per segment—critical when fares are already elevated.
• Travel insurance: Volatile weather and operational disruptions increase the importance of insurance. Many credit cards offer complimentary coverage, so check your benefits.

Looking Ahead: International and Domestic Considerations

For those heading overseas, Henderson highlights that international fares are on the rise as well—especially to Europe and Asia, where demand is outpacing airline capacity increases. “Book international trips at least three months out, and consider secondary cities or alternative destinations to save,” he advises.

Domestic travel within the US may offer more options, but the rules remain the same: the earlier you book, the more choices and savings you’ll likely secure.

Industry Voices

“If you wait until the last minute, you’re almost certainly going to pay peak prices—and may have trouble finding seats at all on prime routes.” — Clint Henderson (The Points Guy)

Final Takeaways

• Book early—by early September for domestic holiday flights, and at least three months in advance for international routes.
• Flexibility is the biggest money-saver: consider alternate travel days, airports, and routes.
• Use tech tools and loyalty programs to get alerts and maximize value.
• Don’t delay—as holiday demand strengthens, waiting can cost you hundreds of dollars extra.

With expert insight and an early, flexible approach, travelers can minimize stress and cost during one of the busiest—and priciest—travel periods of the year.