The U.S. Department of State has issued a significant update to its travel advisory for Mexico, adding the risk of ‘terrorism’ for the first time. This recalibration comes in the wake of the United States officially designating six of Mexico’s most powerful drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations earlier in 2025. Although the overall advisory for Mexico remains at Level 2 — Exercise Increased Caution, the explicit inclusion of terrorism as a risk has intensified the spotlight on U.S.-Mexico security issues, travel safety, and cross-border political dynamics.

Why the Change — Cartels Now ‘Terrorist’ Groups

The revised advisory stems mainly from the U.S. government’s February 2025 decision to classify six major Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. The organizations implicated include the Sinaloa Cartel, Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), and others whose operations span international boundaries, impacting both sides of the border through drug trafficking, violence, and organized criminal activity. The U.S. State Department now cites the “risk of terrorist violence, including terrorist attacks and other activity” throughout Mexico—with 30 of the country’s 32 states falling under this caution.

This shift reflects a broader trend of mounting pressure from Washington, particularly from the Trump administration, on Mexico to aggressively confront cartel activity amid surges in fentanyl-related deaths in the U.S. and persistent security concerns in northern Mexico.

The Current State of the Travel Advisory

The Department of State’s system ranks travel risks on a four-level scale:

• Level 4 — Do Not Travel: The highest warning, reserved for the most dangerous states with pervasive cartel influence and violence.
• Level 3 — Reconsider Travel: High caution advised due to criminal activity, kidnappings, and sporadic violence.
• Level 2 — Exercise Increased Caution: A mid-tier warning covering the majority of Mexican states.
• Level 1 — Exercise Normal Precautions: The safest rating, currently limited to Campeche and Yucatán.

The advisory states, “Many violent crimes take place in Mexico,” including incidents of homicide, kidnapping, carjacking, and robbery. It further warns that “the U.S. government has limited ability to help in many parts of Mexico” and imposes travel restrictions even on its employees.

States with the Strongest Warnings

The 6 ‘Do Not Travel’ States

Colima, Guerrero, Michoacán, Sinaloa, Tamaulipas, and Zacatecas are flagged as the most perilous. Colima, which ended 2024 with the country’s highest homicide rate, and its counterparts are plagued with entrenched cartel presence and frequent violent confrontations. Crimes range from routine assaults to large-scale kidnappings and clashes. Only central, tourist-heavy cities in these states are occasionally accessible to U.S. government employees, typically by air or within very limited safe zones.

The 8 ‘Reconsider Travel’ States

Baja California, Chiapas, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Morelos, and Sonora comprise the next level of caution. Guanajuato, Jalisco, and Baja California are noted for the highest total homicide numbers. Some cities within these states—like Tijuana, Guadalajara, and Puerto Vallarta—are permitted travel destinations for U.S. personnel, provided they observe strict security protocols. The advisory also highlights recent criminal innovations, such as the kidnap-for-ransom schemes using dating apps in Puerto Vallarta.

Regions Requiring ‘Increased Caution’

Sixteen states—including Mexico City, its metropolitan area, much of central and southern Mexico, and key tourism hubs like Quintana Roo and Baja California Sur—fall under Level 2. The main advisory for these regions concerns potential violence from cartels and organized crime, with some states like Estado de México and Puebla requiring additional vigilance against kidnapping.

Yucatán and Campeche—prime travel destinations boasting Chichén Itzá and colonial cities—stand out as Mexico’s safest, maintaining only base-level perimeter precautions.

Presidential and Public Reaction

President Claudia Sheinbaum responded to the U.S. advisory at her recent morning press conference, noting the link between the terrorism designation for cartels and the updated risk warning. She emphasized, “Although the word ‘terrorism’ now appears, Mexico remains the top destination for American tourists. Nearly one million U.S. citizens have chosen to live here.”

Sheinbaum also highlighted recent declines in the national homicide rate and underscored Mexico’s sovereignty, reiterating that foreign military intervention would not be tolerated. Her administration has emphasized an ongoing willingness for bilateral collaboration on security, as evidenced by a recent major handover of cartel prisoners to U.S. authorities—the second such transfer in 2025.

The Reality on the Ground

Statistics reveal that while foreign tourists do occasionally fall victim to crime—including rare cases of homicide or kidnapping—the vast majority travel trouble-free. In the first half of 2025, over 7 million Americans flew to Mexico, joined by nearly 1.7 million Canadians—an increase of nearly 12% from the previous year, even amidst ongoing U.S. advisories and boycotts.

Tourism authorities in both countries continue to stress personal vigilance and careful planning, recommending that travelers consult the latest advisories, avoid high-risk regions, and maintain situational awareness, especially in areas with elevated warnings.

Broader Geopolitical Implications

The escalation in U.S. security warnings is entwined with a more assertive U.S. posture under the Trump administration on Latin American narcotrafficking. The imposition of “fentanyl tariffs”—25% duties on non-USMCA Mexican goods—remains in full effect. Trump has openly discussed the possibility of unilateral military action against drug cartels in Mexico, signing a directive empowering the Pentagon to intervene if necessary. Despite this, President Sheinbaum has drawn a clear line, vowing that no foreign military forces will operate on Mexican soil.

Collaboration does persist, with record numbers of criminal group members arrested and extradited in recent months. The U.S. and Mexican governments continue to negotiate security cooperation, balancing American political pressures with Mexican assertions of sovereignty and national pride.

Outlook for Travelers and the Bilateral Relationship

As the U.S. elevates its travel warnings and rhetorical focus on Mexico’s security landscape, American and Canadian tourism continues to flourish. Mexico remains the leading international destination for U.S. tourists, and despite headlines, the overwhelming majority of foreign visitors face no severe incidents.

Analysts suggest that while the public warnings serve both a practical protective and political purpose, they are unlikely to stem the robust flow of travelers or the deep economic ties between the two nations. Careful planning, informed decisions, and awareness of the dynamic security situation remain the best strategies for those looking to visit or do business in Mexico as both countries navigate an era marked by security challenges and cross-border cooperation.