October 2, 2025 – The US Travel Association has released its much-anticipated updated forecast this week, offering a comprehensive assessment of the travel industry’s path through 2026. The findings signal both encouraging signs of sectoral rebirth and renewed concern about emerging threats to the economic recovery and job stability within one of America’s most vital industries.

Travel Industry Recovery: Nearing or Surpassing Pre-Pandemic Levels

The US travel sector continues its steady rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic’s devastating blow, with both leisure and business travel seeing marked gains year-over-year. According to the US Travel Association’s latest data, total travel spending in 2024 reached $1.32 trillion—just above the 2019 high-water mark of $1.29 trillion. Domestic leisure travel remains the primary driver, with Americans eager to explore both familiar destinations and off-the-beaten-path locales.

Tourism economics projects that by the close of 2025, domestic leisure travel will exceed 2019 levels by more than 7%. The recently ended summer season saw airports routinely surpassing Transportation Security Administration (TSA) traveler throughput records, underscoring the pent-up demand and sustained enthusiasm for travel among US consumers. TSA reported the busiest day in its history on June 30, 2025, with more than 3 million passengers screened in one day.

Business Travel: A Gradual but Improving Recovery

While leisure travel has robustly rebounded, the recovery in business travel has been more gradual yet remains optimistic. The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) reported an 8% increase in business travel expenditures in the first half of 2025, building on a positive trend from late 2024. High-value segments such as conferences, conventions, and incentive travel are returning, as many organizations recognize the irreplaceable value of face-to-face interactions.

However, business travel is still contending with remote work trends and tighter corporate budgets. The US Travel Association has adjusted its outlook: they now anticipate business travel spending will reach 96% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2026, barring further economic or legislative disruptions.

International Travel: Growth With Global Mobility Challenges

International inbound travel to the United States continues to rise but has yet to fully recover. The National Travel and Tourism Office’s data indicates international visitor arrivals for 2024 surpassed 69 million, up 20% from the year prior but still trailing the 2019 peak of 79 million. Major factors hindering a complete rebound include prolonged visa waits in key source markets, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty abroad.

The US Travel Association points out that addressing visa backlogs and streamlining customs processes remain urgent national priorities. The Biden administration has implemented new measures to expand consular staffing and introduce digital processing efficiencies, though travel stakeholders warn much work remains to smooth the path for global travelers.

Threats on the Horizon: Economic and Legislative Concerns

Despite positive recovery trends, the Association’s updated forecast flags several looming threats. Persistent inflation, potential interest rate hikes, and consumer uncertainty could limit discretionary spending on travel in 2026. Furthermore, legislative standoffs in Congress threaten federal funding for essential travel infrastructure and destination marketing, which are foundational to maintaining America’s competitive edge as a global destination.

In September 2025, multiple travel-related organizations—including the American Hotel & Lodging Association, US Airlines for America, and major convention bureaus—joined US Travel in lobbying Congress to reauthorize the Brand USA marketing program and secure long-term airport infrastructure funding. The risk of government shutdowns, as experienced in October 2023 and threatened anew for 2025, further stokes industry anxiety, with destination marketing campaigns and travel-related government services often among the first to face disruptions.

Jobs and the Broader Economy: Millions Still at Stake

The travel sector remains a key pillar of the U.S. labor market. In 2024, the industry supported more than 15 million American jobs, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Although this is a substantial recovery from mid-pandemic lows (when job losses exceeded 8 million in the sector), ongoing headwinds—economic or legislative—could again place millions at risk.

US Travel Association President and CEO Geoff Freeman emphasized in a recent press statement, “Travel is not a luxury, but a vital economic engine for communities across all 50 states. Every dollar spent on travel supports American jobs—from hospitality and food service to transportation and attractions. Rapid action in Congress is essential to maintaining these gains and ensuring future growth.”

Destination-Specific Performance and Market Shifts

States such as Florida, California, and Texas showed outsized gains in both domestic and international visitation during 2024 and early 2025. Florida welcomed more than 140 million visitors in 2024—a state record—and California’s renewed destination marketing efforts have already brought international arrivals within 10% of pre-pandemic numbers.
Meanwhile, emerging destinations in the Midwest and Pacific Northwest have benefited from Americans’ renewed interest in road trips and “close-to-home” explorations, sparking local economic booms in Oregon, Montana, and Tennessee.

Key Opportunities for Stakeholders

• Digital and Sustainable Travel Innovations: Operators are rapidly adopting new technologies such as contactless payments and AI-powered itinerary planning to enhance traveler confidence and satisfaction.
• Accessible Travel: A surge in domestic interest in accessible facilities and experiences—as evidenced by Oregon becoming the first state to be officially “Accessibility Verified”—provides new opportunities for destinations to welcome underserved populations.
• Marketing and Incentives: Aggressive marketing efforts and unique incentive programs (such as airline loyalty promotions and hotel deals) are driving growth and capturing new demographics.

Looking Forward: The Travel Industry’s Roadmap Through 2026

The US Travel Association’s forecast offers both hope and caution. While the industry nears or even surpasses pre-pandemic output, it stands at a crossroads. Strategic investment in infrastructure, pro-growth legislation, and thoughtful attention to traveler experience will determine the sector’s resilience and its role in sustaining the broader economy. Stakeholders await Congress’s next moves, as decisions in the coming months may shape the trajectory of travel—and the fortunes of millions of American workers—for years to come.

Travelers, employers, and policymakers alike are encouraged to stay informed and engaged as the US travel industry charts its post-pandemic future with optimism, agility, and persistent vigilance.