President Donald Trump is expected to welcome Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the White House on Thursday, ushering in a pivotal moment for U.S.-Turkey relations as the White House weighs lifting the ban on F-35 fighter jet sales to Ankara. This high-stakes diplomatic encounter comes amid a period of heightened tension and recalibration in the bilateral relationship between the NATO allies.

Background: F-35 Sales and the S-400 Standoff

Tensions between Washington and Ankara escalated sharply in 2019 after Turkey took delivery of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, triggering its ejection from the joint F-35 stealth fighter program. U.S. officials cited concerns the S-400 could compromise critical military secrets by enabling Russia to gather intelligence on the advanced Western aircraft. Turkey, a NATO member since 1952 and formerly a production and maintenance partner in the F-35 program, responded by asserting its sovereign right to diversify defense procurement.

The Trump administration’s imposition of sanctions, mandated under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), sent relations to a near crisis, interrupting Turkey’s planned 100-plus F-35 procurement and billions in aerospace investments. In the years since, Ankara has pushed for normalization and restoration of defense ties, especially as threats on its southern border have grown and its air force fleet continues to age.

Changing Geopolitics and New Diplomatic Calculations

The meeting between Trump and Erdogan comes as global attention intensifies around security in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the eastern Mediterranean. Turkey has played a contentious but strategic role in both NATO’s eastern flank and conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and the Caucasus. While Washington has repeatedly voiced alarm over Ankara’s rapprochement with Moscow, it has also recognized Turkey’s pivotal value in containing Russia and managing regional crises.

Diplomatic sources indicate recent dialogues have explored a potential compromise: Turkey might limit operational integration of the Russian system, boost support for NATO missions, and reinvigorate defense cooperation through greater transparency and technical safeguards. In turn, Washington could restore arms sales, expand intelligence sharing, and consider Ankara’s economic and security needs more fully.

This realignment comes as both countries balance competing interests—Turkey seeks assurances on border security and Kurdish militias in Syria, while the U.S. aims to solidify NATO unity and ensure the integrity of sensitive technologies.

What Is at Stake?

At the heart of the renewed engagement is the future of the F-35 deal. The advanced jet, manufactured by Lockheed Martin, represents not only a technological edge but also the glue of alliance interoperability and deterrence against rival powers. Turkey’s exclusion from the program rattled defense procurement plans for a number of NATO allies and led to cascading supply-chain effects, since Turkish firms were responsible for manufacturing over 900 components for the jet.

Lifting the ban could restore those industrial ties, cushion jobs in both countries, and bolster Turkey’s air power in the face of growing threats from Syria, Iran, and insurgent groups. Yet it would also require the Biden administration and Congress—where skepticism remains strong—to be satisfied on security assurances and end-use monitoring.

Broader U.S.-Turkey Relations: More Than Just Jets

This week’s summit is not solely about weapons. The two leaders are expected to address a sweeping agenda:

• Regional conflicts: Syria’s continuing instability, the status of Kurdish fighters, and post-war reconstruction efforts.
• Trade and investment: Ongoing efforts to lift tariffs, increase bilateral trade (which reached $30 billion in 2023), and resolve long-standing disputes over steel and aluminum.
• Human rights concerns: U.S. lawmakers and allies continue to press Ankara on domestic crackdowns, press freedoms, and the detention of dual nationals.
• Migration and refugees: Turkey houses the world’s largest refugee population—including 3.6 million Syrians—and uses this leverage in negotiations with the EU and Western partners.

Both presidents are also facing complex political dynamics at home. Erdogan recently secured re-election, but faces inflation, a weakening lira, and earthquake recovery needs. Trump, campaigning for reelection, is balancing his desire for diplomatic “wins” with demands from Congress and the Pentagon for strict safeguards.

Reaction from Allies and Congress

The possibility of resuming F-35 sales is drawing a mix of cautious optimism and concern in Washington and among America’s European allies. Senate critics, most notably on the Armed Services Committee, have signaled that any deal must show Turkey has reversed its Russian hardware policy. At the same time, Germany, the UK, and Italy—key NATO stakeholders—have encouraged efforts to bring Ankara closer to the alliance’s technological and security standards.

Looking Forward

As Trump and Erdogan meet, the world watches for signals of thawing relations or deepening mistrust. Defense industry analysts estimate that if F-35 sales resume, Turkish production of components could top $700 million annually, with significant positive effects for both economies and for NATO supply security.

Whether or not the F-35 ban is lifted during this visit, experts say the meeting itself marks a pivotal turning point. Success could usher Turkey back into the top tier of NATO defense relationships and stabilize a region wracked by turbulence, while failure could push Ankara further toward alternative suppliers and alliances.

The outcome will have enduring consequences for alliance cohesion, weapons proliferation, and global power balances as the U.S. and Turkey navigate a complex, contested new era.